Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.629690 0.727630 0.832616 0.953164 1.087380 1.231849 1.398728
2025-02-16 0.441824 0.564732 0.706954 0.882240 1.090934 1.329886 1.622506
2025-02-23 0.304954 0.433125 0.593509 0.805511 1.074622 1.400918 1.822124
2025-03-02 0.205540 0.327094 0.492283 0.726756 1.043785 1.449838 2.000416
2025-03-09 0.149017 0.265697 0.437560 0.698431 1.072074 1.574515 2.285493
2025-03-16 0.106401 0.214029 0.386334 0.666007 1.089596 1.686044 2.564074
2025-03-23 0.083058 0.187102 0.366867 0.676486 1.168547 1.888791 2.984267
2025-03-30 0.058336 0.150136 0.323214 0.641563 1.174433 1.986974 3.265419
2025-04-06 0.042590 0.125166 0.294570 0.625902 1.207305 2.126750 3.616998
2025-04-13 0.030382 0.103016 0.265758 0.604433 1.226982 2.246739 3.946904
2025-04-20 0.023482 0.090744 0.253699 0.611374 1.294970 2.447653 4.414054
2025-04-27 0.017500 0.078058 0.237470 0.607134 1.341973 2.617244 4.842324
2025-05-04 0.012792 0.066901 0.222580 0.604786 1.395506 2.807798 5.327377
2025-05-11 0.009353 0.057767 0.210088 0.605434 1.455072 3.014123 5.853540
2025-05-18 0.006231 0.047169 0.190182 0.585508 1.471681 3.146337 6.264903
2025-05-25 0.003778 0.036673 0.166387 0.551047 1.453757 3.214171 6.570350
2025-06-01 0.002583 0.031220 0.156142 0.548141 1.501826 3.407471 7.106420
2025-06-08 0.001647 0.025773 0.143503 0.536086 1.528108 3.561057 7.580664
2025-06-15 0.001241 0.023694 0.142540 0.556201 1.629291 3.866683 8.346282
2025-06-22 0.000711 0.018904 0.128281 0.534632 1.630868 3.975453 8.756408
2025-06-29 0.000429 0.015791 0.119453 0.527234 1.664958 4.151328 9.299939
2025-07-06 0.000234 0.012812 0.109312 0.513039 1.680184 4.288865 9.777285
2025-07-13 0.000151 0.011415 0.106513 0.522549 1.756097 4.557228 10.516408